The tight end position in fantasy football can be one of the most frustrating positions to try and figure out.
With a limited number of elite TEs combined with weekly inconsistencies from the remaining tight ends, it can often be a position that either makes or breaks your fantasy score on a week-by-week basis.
I’ve divided this year’s tight ends into four categories and of course, there is always the streaming option, where most of us will, unfortunately, find ourselves.
The Big Three
Travis Kelce - Kansas City Chiefs
George Kittle - San Francisco 49ers
Darren Waller - Las Vegas Raiders
The top three TEs this year are no-brainers. You can’t miss with these guys. Kelce is being drafted at the end of the first round/beginning of the second round, and Kittle and Waller are going around the beginning/middle of the third round.
If I have the No. 11 or 12 pick in the draft, I’m selecting Kelce without hesitation. Plug him into your lineup and never take him out except for the bye week and you’ll be set.
If I'm selecting near the beginning of the third round and Kittle and Waller are both available, I might pause depending on the other players available and who I selected with my first two picks, but ultimately I’m going to pick one of those guys nine times out of 10, with a very slight edge to Kittle.
The Next Three
Mark Andrews - Baltimore Ravens
T.J. Hockenson - Detroit Lions
Kyle Pitts - Atlanta Falcons
I love Mark Andrews. I drafted him in 2019 and he was every bit as advertised. He fell back down to earth last season, partly due to injury and game script, but I think we have a chance to see him revert back to 2019 Andrews, when he finished with 64 receptions for 852 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Andrews is being selected near the end of the fifth/start of the sixth round, and I’m comfortable taking him there.
The other two players on this list I have more hesitation drafting.
While I think Hockenson is a good player, the situation in Detroit is so bad, I just don’t feel confident drafting him around the same time Andrews is going. Yes, the Lions will likely be behind in every game and yes, they probably won’t have a wide receiver worth starting (remember when they had Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and even Danny Amendola was a flex option some weeks), but I don’t trust new quarterback Jared Goff. I’m skipping Hockenson most of the time, unless he drops in drafts to the point his value is too high to pass up.
Pitts is a little harder to gauge, as he has been penned as the most gifted tight end to come out since Rob Gronkowski (Gronk was drafted No. 42, Pitts went No. 4 overall). The Falcons traded Julio Jones so Pitts could see a fair share of targets, but rookie tight ends never really explode in year one. It’s usually their second season where the uptick in numbers happens, but I will say if any TE is to break the mold, it would be Pitts.
I’d roll the dice on Pitts over Hockenson, as they are both going around the same spot, but I’d still take Andrews over both.
The “So You’re Saying There’s a Chance…”
Dallas Goedert - Philadelphia Eagles
Noah Fant - Denver Broncos
Tyler Higbee - Los Angeles Rams
Logan Thomas - Washington Football Team
Robert Tonyan - Green Bay Packers
If you are part of the half of your league that misses out on the first six tight ends, your next opportunity to grab a potential playmaker at the position will be around rounds 8-10. That’s where Goedert, Fant, Higbee, Thomas and Tonyan are being drafted on average.
I’ve broken these five players into subcategories:
Most Potential: Higbee
Best Schedule: Fant
Highest Risk/Reward: Goedert
Most Consistent: Tonyan
Wildcard: Thomas
I think with new Rams QB Matthew Stafford, who is a major upgrade at the position, and Gerald Everett out of town, Higbee has a chance to finish the season as a top-5 TE.
Fant has the best schedule out of all these tight ends, especially in the fantasy playoff weeks, facing Detroit, Cincinnati and Las Vegas in weeks 14-16.
Goedert has shown flashes over the last two seasons, but the question marks of Philadelphia’s offense, battling for targets with fellow TE Zach Ertz, who according to reports looks better than ever in training camp, plus the unknown of QB Jalen Hurts makes him the biggest boom-or-bust player in this group in my opinion.
Tonyan came out of nowhere last season and finished with 11 touchdowns, providing a security blanket for Aaron Rodgers. I believe Tonyan is the safest bet of this group with a steady floor but little to no room for breakout games.
The wildcard is Thomas, who has a new QB in gunslinger Ryan Fitzpatrick. He also signed a three-year extension in the offseason, which shows the team is invested in him. Thomas saw a whopping 110 targets last year, but new weapons in Washington should bring that number down a bit. I could envision a world where Thomas puts up top-5 TE numbers but also can see him flopping and falling out of the top-15.
My draft order for these five TEs is Fant, Goedert, Higbee, Thomas, Tonyan. I’m not taking any of them before the eighth round and depending on who else is available around the same time, I might skip this group altogether and look for a guy in this next group.
The Close Your Eyes and Pray
Mike Gesicki - Miami Dolphins
Irv Smith Jr. - Minnesota Vikings
Evan Engram - New York Giants
Jonnu Smith - New England Patriots
Rob Gronkowski - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Adam Trautman - New Orleans Saints
Close your eyes, throw a dart and hope you hit a bullseye. That’s how I look at this next group of tight ends.
With the exception of Gronkowski (he’s on this list simply for touchdown dominance), most of these guys will be playing on teams that will struggle to wins games, so the passing game should be relied on heavily.
Smith did the most with the least last season and should see an uptick in targets in the classic Patriots two-TE configuration. It’s hard to trust Cam Newton or rookie Mac Jones however, which makes me trust Smith less.
Gesicki is skilled and will be a great safety valve for Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa, but his inconsistency will be frustrating for fantasy owners.
Engram has the talent, but injury concerns and team concerns put a damper on his prospects.
Smith Jr. has shown very little in his first two seasons as a pro after dominating in college at Alabama, but with Kyle Rudolph gone (please don’t vulture Engram’s touchdowns) and an offense that can move the ball, he has the best chance to break out of this group and move up in my opinion, but it's certainly far from a guarantee.
Whispers out of Saints camp is that Trautman is going to be utilized heavily in the passing game, which is probably true since the receiving options in New Orleans are lacking, to say the least. That’s the main reason why I’d take a gamble on the second-year pro who was known more as a blocking TE in college.
I wouldn’t draft any TE in this group before my second-to-last pick or final selection, and even then one or two of these guys will probably go undrafted and can be streamed off the waiver wire.
Below are my rankings for the top-15 quarterbacks and where I would select them in a standard 12-team draft.
Patrick Mahomes (Middle of Round 3)
Josh Allen (Middle of Round 4)
Kyler Murray (End of Round 4)
Dak Prescott (End of Round 5)
Lamar Jackson (Start of Round 6)
Russell Wilson (End of Round 6)
Aaron Rodgers (Middle of Round 7)
Justin Herbert (Middle of Round 7)
Tom Brady (Middle of Round 8)
Ryan Tannehill (End of Round 9)
Joe Burrow (Middle of Round 10)
Matthew Stafford (Middle of Round 10)
Matt Ryan (Middle of Round 11)
Jalen Hurts (Middle of Round 12)
Trevor Lawrence (Start of Round 13)
With the majority of fantasy drafts firing up at the end of this month, each of my columns for the month will include a Daily Draft Sleeper.
To qualify as one of my draft sleepers, a player’s ADP (average draft position) must be later than Round 10. That’s it!
New York Jets WR: Elijah Moore
The Jets brought in Corey Davis to be their No. 1 guy and reliable slot receiver Jamison Crowder is still there as well. But New York used a second-round pick on Moore, who I think has a shot to be the WR2 opposite of Davis.
Rookies tend to stick together, and with a rookie QB in Zach Wilson, I imagine he’ll be looking to make his 2021 draft partner stand out. Even more than that, word out of Jets training camp is Moore is blowing away the coaching staff with his speed, route-running and maturity.
Jets head coach Robert Saleh recently said this about Moore:
“He really wants to get better, he wants all of it. He wants all the information, he wants everything he can get on the grass. I think that’s more of a testament to the character more than it is his play and what’s being asked of him, because they’re all being asked of the same thing. He’s special, in that regard.”
Fantasy players seem to be picking up on Moore. The rookie was going undrafted in mock drafts just a couple of weeks ago, but is now being selected in the 12-14 round on average. Depending on my roster construction, if I need a WR with a high ceiling in one of the later rounds, I like Moore to be that guy.